#header-inner img {margin: 0 auto !important; #header-inner {text-align: Center ;} Fiji Coupfourpointfive: International reports show continued concern for Fiji

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

International reports show continued concern for Fiji

The latest reports from leading economic groups, the International Monetary Fund and the Economist Intelligence Unit, say Fiji's  saggy economy and uncertain political situation remain a concern.

Detailing the increasing loss of civili liberties and defections, resignations and dismissals the Economist Intelligence Unit says the unlected government is unlikely to release its hold on Fiji citizens.

"The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Commodore Bainimarama will hold firm to his decision to delay the next election until 2014. There are also doubts about whether the poll, when it happens, will be free and fair."

The unit also warns investors of the grim realities of Fiji's economy. "The government has ambitious goals for economic reform, including boostingGDP, carrying out land reform and eli minating the current-account deficit.

"However, the high level of public debt means that the government is under pressure to reduce the size of the public sector, and only limited progress towards this objective has been made so far. Fiji remains a highly unpredictable destination for foreign investment. 

"Legislation passed in 2010 outlawed ownership of media organisations by foreigners, and a large US-owned producer of mineral water, Fiji Water, was hit by a dramatic rise in the water resource rent tax in the 2011 budget."

It goes on to say that he regime's record on economic management is "patchy."

"We estimate that it posted a budget deficit in 2010 and that another will have been recorded in 2011. The budget for 2012 outlines considerable changes to the tax regime.

"Fijians, and particularly those on low incomes, are to see their income tax contributions slashed. The government intends to enable this measure to be afforded through increases in a number of indirect taxes, and believes that the industries affected by these rises will be sufficiently strong to cope.

"The 2012 budget aims to achieve a much smaller deficit, at the equivalent of 1.9% of GDP, this year, despite another increase in spending. 

"We believe that the authorities will struggle to meet this ambitious target, particularly given the substantial changes to income tax that are planned. We forecast that the deficit will widen in 2012, to 3.4% of GDP, and will remain around this level in 2013."

In the second report on Fiji, the International Monetary Fund says there have been some gains in the economy but "it seems unlikely, given fundamental and economic constraints, that growth will exceed 1½ to 2 percent on a sustained basis unless structural reforms are accelerated. Risks around this outlook are tilted to the downside, given political uncertainties, structural weaknesses, and the fragile global economy."

In a rare foray into domestic politcs the IMF has also called for the regime to relax emergency measures ahead of the 2014 election.

It says its mission had found the economy needed structural reforms and a "concrete plan" ahead of the first elections since a 2006 military coup.

It says "removing structural impediments to growth is critically important" and that many of the mission's interlocutors suggested that relaxing the emergency regulation and establishing a clear path toward a 2014 election would be the key measures to boost investor confidence."

"The current government took power in a 2006 coup, relations with traditional donors are strained, and FDI (foreign direct investment) has dropped sharply, though emerging donors remain engaged and have provided assistance.

"Elections expected for 2009 did not occur, but the government has subsequently announced plans for an election in 2014 and provided an allocation in the 2012 budget for electoral preparations."

The IMF says "Monetary conditions are accommodative and the system is awash with liquidity on account of foreign exchange inflows. However, credit growth has been slow, and banks’ loan-deposit ratio remains below 90 percent."

It adds: "While lending to the private sector is now rising at about 5 percent, the Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) is concerned that small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and others are being shut out. 

The IMF says higher food and oil prices have contributed to weak external balances saying:  "The financial sector is stable, but FNPF finances are unsustainable over the long run. The banks are well capitalized, with low NPLs and adequate loan loss provisioning. 

"The finance-company and insurance sectors are stable, but the largest nonbank financial institution, the FNPF, is actuarially unsustainable: its current pension annuitization rates, which vary from 15 to 25 percent for different pensioners, imply negative net cashflows by 2030 and depleted assets by 2056."


The Intelligence Economist Unit report
www.mediafire.com/file/sa8do51t1376a6e/Fiji Jan 2012 EIU report_dl.pdf
The latest IMF Report

17 comments:

  1. What a load of crap this report is - The 2014 elections will not happen as Sir Khaiyum knows that the IMF Report is not worth the paper it is written on as it only encourages him to do what he is doing in Fiji now - Say there will be elections when it aint going to happen.

    Sir Khaiyum will rule Fiji as he pleases with the full backing of the Mataivalu ni Solisona and its dumb arse world record tavioka patch sprinter.

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  2. The INF report in a nutshell: the international banks will be repaid, but tough luck for FNPF pensioners.

    Other findings:

    Improvements in the investment climate -- i.e., a lawful government and an independent judiciary -- are key to having an effective government and economic growth.

    Policymaking needs to consist of more than asking Aiyaz and dictating to Nailatikau.

    Some of the regime's reforms are actually improvements, or would be, if genuinely implemented.

    My own prognostication:

    Had the regime concentrated sincerely on meaningful reforms and been truly consultative, instead of petty and venal, it might have left a positive legacy. Alas and alack, it did not. But then, that's the nature of dictatorships, isn't it? No sense of proportionality or self-control.

    I hope some of the regime's positive reforms will be kept once the Hibiscus Revolution arrives. But I fear otherwise, because revolutions resemble dictatorships that way -- no sense of proportionality or self-control.

    s/ Dakuwaqa

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  3. sotia says...

    Well we the military just waiting for China to take over Fiji and our beloved land, and Frank and Aiyaz will be sent to jail. and we join the china army too.

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  4. WHAT AN ARSEHOLE!!! A murderer and now hundreds of innocent DEPENDANTS of sacked PWD workers now without any income!!! TAMATA SONA LEVU LUVENI SETANI LASULASU.

    By NANISE LOANAKADAVU

    Military officers are playing an important role in guiding civil servants in their leadership role, says the Permanent Secretary for Works and Transport Commander Francis Kean.

    Speaking to police officers during the Police Leadership symposium in Nasova, Commander Kean said Fiji’s military were responsible for educating civil servants to be good leaders.

    Commander Kean said it was important to empower leadership for police officers because they played an important role in the wellbeing, not only of the people of Fiji, but for visitors as well.
    He urged the police officers to lead from the front and serve the community well.

    Commander Kean described good leadership as bringing the team together regardless of differences and working towards a common goal.
    He said their role was simply to make the Police force stronger.

    “Our duty is to educate and mould civil servants and other disciplined forces on their leadership role,” he said.
    “As leaders they should live up to the expectations of the Government.”

    Commander Kean said there was a great need for leaders who have the ability to influence and empower people, especially in the Fiji Police Force.

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  5. There so much talk of reforms and other economic disciplines but no mention about the money draining bloated military. Can't the IMF ADB and others lending money to Fiji tell the regime straight where the big hole actually is.

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  6. First plug of the mote from your eyes then go talk on leadership...Did,you set good example-NO,Were you a Good leader-WARAI,Trustworthy-Nahi,educated- maqa saraga,vakalialia iko tikoga kei tavalemu drau vei tauri deqa,drau qai cici wavoki...we are trully sick and tired of hearing such bull crap!!!!!lecture your own people in Delainabua and walu bay first then lecture the police,you know what at the moment you were giving those bull-craps,3/4 of them were zzzzzzzzzzzzzz,and saying-!@#$%^^&&***((((%$## mai@#!$ sala kuta!!!

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  7. Kean is a sociapath.

    He lost control like any drunkard thug which makes a mockery of him being an officer. His brutal killing of Whippy, who was drunk, is a testament to his lack of control

    The very person who should have shown retraint, control and leadership in this situation reggressed into a savage, and he has the gaul to lecture police officers, who face the circumstance he faced everyday of their working lives and show constraint, patience and understanding.

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  8. The trouble is, Fiji is ruled by uneducated assholes from the military. And the army is full of uneducated wannabes that have sold their souls to the pig Bocimarama.

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  9. Don't worry Kean will be 'put down' later on.

    Another word leaked from inside, Fiji is on the verge of becoming bankrupt. Broke in other words, that's why Aiyarse is overseas looking for loans.

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  10. Anon@8:19... You heard it right,the
    Military Government is running out of Money-reasons why the PWD had to fire all 500 of its employees.The excuse-Kean used was that they lied about beign sick? The money saved from these fired PWD employees will be funneled back to be used to pay Civil Servants etc,.Government vehicles are been fueled at private gas stations&paid for with Government P.O or charge cards.I'm sure the PM
    is serious about the 2014 election,
    and probably wished he hadn't done
    this stupid coup? What with always looking at your back to make sure no one will stab you;always with swift-darting eyes sweeping the people in front of you,to see that
    no one has weapons, to kill or maime you; an un-appreciative public;untrusting international communities,etc,etc.Whoever in his right mind would want to go through
    this shit?

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  11. While Aiass is overseas can someone look at him. Kemudou mai Dubai dou waraka na koli qori.

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  12. armies have brought same to fijian people always.
    we should start from rabuka/bai.george all to be hanged than coup will stop in fiji.
    armies was to uphold the law and support the govt of the day.
    madua na kaiviti.

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  13. Well the AG is finally went home to India. Good place for him. He might not be back! He's doing a RUM.In his case,he's told his BOSS
    that he's only going to India to check-out the possibility of taking
    a refugee status in 2014? On a side show,the AG is trying his best to look normal? Yet, we know that he's trying to seek a quick loan from any Government in Asia?
    He's also thinking of skipping the country and taking Bai's loots with him!

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  14. FBC tries it hand at impartial reporting??

    Political uncertainty blamed for slow growth

    13:25 Today

    Taken from/By: Google
    Report by: Eleina McDonald

    Political uncertainty is among the factors blamed for Fiji’s slow economic growth last year.

    Even though the economy expanded by about two per cent after several years of low growth – the International Monetary Fund says political uncertainty and slow structural reforms have suppressed potential growth.

    In its recent report following a visit to Fiji late last year – the IMF says this has pushed Fiji’s public debt ratio to one of the highest levels in the region – leaving limited room for future shocks.

    The IMF says even though the economic outlook appears stable – there are downside risks related to the political situation.

    The report further says policy changes regarding the land system, public enterprises, the sugar sector, exchange controls, pensions and the civil service are all in the right direction.

    Recent political developments should boost investor confidence, the report adds saying the establishment of a concrete plan leading up to the 2014 election – will also be critical.

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  15. The IMF report says the sugar sector is heading in the right direction? Eitheir these people have somehow got their countries mixed up or Abdul Khan & Chaudhry are writing the reports?

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  16. IMF are the last people to be giving Viti fiscal advise given the current financial mess some of their own dysfuctional economies are in?

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